[April 30 draft]

The 2008 World Congress on National Accounts and Economic Performance Measures for Nations

May 12–17, 2008

Key Bridge Marriott (Arlington, VA—minutes from Washington D.C.)

http://www.marriott.com/hotels/maps/travel/waskb-key-bridge-marriott/

Organized by Richard Freeman (Harvard University and NBER) and Alice Nakamura (University of Alberta)

  

Monday, May 12

May 12 Evening Program

Capital View Ballroom, Key Bridge Marriott Hotel

Located on the 14th floor (essentially the top floor of the hotel) with panoramic views of Georgetown, the Potomac River and Washington, D.C.

  

Master of Ceremonies for the evening of May 12: Leonard Nakamura (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

6:00-6:45 Welcome Reception for the Congress -- just outside the Capital View Ballroom

6:45-7:30 DINNER

7:45-8:00 Session Chair: Leonard Nakamura (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

7:30-7:45 Alice Nakamura (University of Alberta) and Richard Freeman (Harvard University and NBER)

“Official Statistics—The Challenge and Hope”

by R. Freeman (Harvard University and NBER), and A. Nakamura and M. Percy (University

of Alberta)

7:45-8:00 Masahiro Kuroda (President, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office,

Government of Japan, and Keio University)

Announcement of the 2008 Laureates of the Society of Official Economic Statistics:

W. Erwin Diewert and Dale W. Jorgenson

“The Parents of Modern Growth Accounting and Index Numbers”

Masahiro Kuroda, Chair of the 2008 World Congress on Economic Performance Measures for Nations Award Committee and the person who will present part 1 of this six part award for outstanding contributions to the development of official statistics for nations, explains the committee’s selection:

“Our two colleagues, Erwin Diewert and Dale Jorgenson , did provide the seminal beginnings for much that has become so accepted in the fields of growth accounting and index numbers that we all now use these insights and methods no longer stopping to remember who created them. In addition, Erwin and Dale both nurtured and raised their numerous intellectual progeny, year after year, through countless meetings that they traveled to participate in, and through all the help they gave over the years to their academic colleagues and students and statistical agency colleagues trying to learn more about the making and use of official statistics. The Committee for the 2008 World Congress on National Accounts and Economic Performance Measures for Nations, of which I am the Chair, wishes to convey our profound appreciation and respect to Erwin Diewert and Dale Jorgenson for their career long contributions to official statistics, which we see as a pillar of modern democratic societies.”

  

8:20-10:00 Panel I on the Role of Official Statistics in a Modern Society

Session Chair: Leonard Nakamura (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

Steve Landefeld (BEA)

“Statistics, Index Numbers, and the Age of Turbulence”

Michael Ward (author of Quantifying the World, and former Principal Economist in the

Development Data Group of the World Bank)

“The Common Ground; The Quiet Triumph of the US International Statistical System”

Martin Eiglsperger (European Central Bank)

“The EU Experience”

Masahiro Kuroda (Japanese Government and Keio University)

“The Japanese Experience”

Keith Hall (Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics)

“A US Perspective”

10:00-10:30 Social Time

Tuesday, May 13

Organized by Christina Wang (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

and Leonard Nakamura (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

May 13 Morning Program

In front of Potomac Ballroom (Main floor)

7:30-8:30 Registration and Continental breakfast

(If you wish, you may pick up something to eat and bring it in to the conference room with you.)

Please move into the conference room before 8:30, as we need to begin exactly then.

Failure to start on time, or running over on your time, will inevitably result in someone else losing time.

  

Potomac Ballroom (Main floor)

8:30-8:35 Welcoming Remarks on behalf of the Congress Organizing Committee

Ephraim Leibtag (Economic Research Service for the US Department of Agriculture)

8:35-8:55 Congress Keynote Address

Marshall Reinsdorf (BEA)

“Effects of Terms of Trade Gains and Tariffs Changes on the Measurement of U.S. Productivity Growth” [presentation file] [abstract]

by R.C. Feenstra, M.B. Reinsdorf, and M.J. Slaughter

8:55-9:00 Welcoming Remarks on behalf of the May 13 Program Organizers

Christina Wang (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

  

May 13 Session 1: Intangibles

Session Chair: Erwin Diewert (University of British Columbia and NBER)

9:00-9:20 Ellen R. McGrattan (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and NBER)

“Intangible Capital in Macroeconomic Modeling”

by E.R. McGrattan (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and NBER) and

                E.C. Prescott (Arizona State University, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and NBER)

9:20-9:40 Bart Hobijn (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

“Quality: The Embodied Intangible”

9:40-10:00 Dan Sichel (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

“Some Views on the Importance of Measurement”

____________________

  

10:00-10:20 COFFEE BREAK

  

May 13 Session 2: Microdata Analysis

Session Chair: Leonard Nakamura (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

10:20-10:40 James McAndrews (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

“Examples of Micropayments Data”

10:40-11:00 Kasper Roszbach (Sveriges Riksbank)

“Microdata: Collecting and Integrating Them into a Central Bank’s Research and Policy” [presentation file]

11:00-11:20 John Haltiwanger (University of Maryland and NBER)

“Micro and Macro Data Integration and Consistency”

11:20-11:35 Commentator for May 13 Sessions 1 and 2

Susanto Basu (Boston College and NBER)

____________________

  

May 13 Luncheon Program

Capital View Ballroom (14th floor)

11:45-12:15 LUNCH

  

12:15-12:45 World Congress of Economic Measurement Laureate Address

Introduction: Steve Landefeld (BEA)

2008 Laureate Dale Jorgenson (Harvard University and NBER)

“Information Technology and the American Productivity Resurgence”

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/jorgenson/

  

May 13 Afternoon Program

Potomac Ballroom (Main floor)

May 13 Session 3: Surveys and Forecasts

Session Chair: Paul Schreyer (OECD)

1:00-1:20 Raymond Owens (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

“Collecting and Interpreting Survey Information: The Richmond Fed’s Experience”

1:20-1:40 Sébastien Pérez-Duarte (European Central Bank)

“A Prospective Euro Area Survey on Household Finances: Policy Needs and Preparatory Work” [presentation file]

by S. Pérez-Duarte and J. Slacalek (European Central Bank)

1:40-2:00 Michael Kiley (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

“A Comparison of Forecast Performance between Federal Reserve Staff

Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, and a DSGE Model” [presentation file]

by R.M. Edge, M.T. Kiley and J.-P. Laforte (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

2:00-2:10 Commentator for May 13 Session 3

Karen Pence (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

____________________

  

2:10-2:30 COFFEE BREAK

  

May 13 Session 4: Real-Time Data and Analysis

Session Chair: Leonard Nakamura (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

2:30-2:50 Tom Stark (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

“Real-Time Data at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia”

2:50-3:10 Simon van Norden (HEC Montréal)

“Measuring Trends and Gaps in Real Time” [presentation file] [additional]

3:10-3:30 Robert Tetlow (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

“Some Implications of Mismeasurement for Model Uncertainty and Monetary Policy” [presentation file]

3:30-3:50 Domenico Giannone (European Central Bank)

“Now-Casting Economic Activity”

3:50-4:00 Commentator for May 13 Session 4

Dean Croushore (University of Richmond)

____________________

  

4:00-4:20 COFFEE BREAK

  

May 13 Session 5: Hard-to-Measure Industries

Session Chair: Christina Wang (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

4:20-4:40 Charles Steindel (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

“Measuring the Impact of Securitization on Imputed Bank Output” [presentation file]

by A. Ashcraft and C. Steindel (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

4:40-5:00 David Lebow (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

“Inflation Measurement and Monetary Policy” [presentation file]

____________________

  

May 13 Session 6: Concluding Panel

Session Chair: Christina Wang (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

5:00-5:20 John Fernald (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

“Productivity Measurement and Monetary Policy: A Selective Review of Recent Experience”

5:20-5:40 Dave Stockton (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

“The National Accounts and Monetary Policy”

5:40-6:00 Blaise Gadanecz (Bank for International Settlements and The Irving Fisher Committee on

Central Bank Statistics)

“Central Bank Policymaking: the Statistical Challenge and the Irving Fisher Committee”

6:00-6:10 Concluding Remarks on behalf of the May 13 Program Organizers

Leonard Nakamura (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

____________________

  

May 13 Evening Program

Capital View Ballroom (14th floor)

  

A Celebration of EU KLEMS and KLEMS Research

Master of Ceremonies for the Evening of May 13: Paul Schreyer (OECD)

6:15-7:00 DINNER

7:00-8:45 The KLEMS Lectures

Session Chair: Paul Schreyer (OECD)

The KLEMS Keynote Address: Bart van Ark (Conference Board)

“The Productivity Gap between Europe and the U.S.: Trends and Causes”

by B. van Ark (Conference Board), M. O’Mahony (University of Birmingham)

and M. Timmer (University of Groningen)

Alice Nakamura (University of Alberta):  “The KLEMS Story”

Wulong Gu (Statistics Canada): “An Update on KLEMS Data at Statistics Canada”

Mun Ho (Resources for the Future): “Industry Origins of the American Growth Resurgence”

Michael J. Harper (Bureau of Labor Statistics):  

“Multifactor Productivity Measures for U.S. Non-Manufacturing Industry Groups, 1987–2005” [presentation file]

by M.J. Harper, B. Khandrika and R. Kinoshita (Bureau of Labor Statistics),

and S. Rosenthal (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

9:00-9:15 Presentation of the “K” to Erwin Diewert and Dale Jorgenson and induction of new members to

the KLEMS Galaxy of the 2008 Official Statistics Stars by “World Congress Awards

Committee Member Arnold Zellner (University of Chicago)

Government of Japan, and Keio University)

9:15-10:30 Social Time

Wednesday, May 14

May 14 Morning Program

In front of Potomac Ballroom (Main floor)

7:30-8:30 Continental breakfast (and registration for newcomers)

  

Potomac Ballroom

May 14 Session 1: Capital Measurement, Productivity and Growth

Session Chair: Dale Jorgenson (Harvard University and NBER)

8:30-8:55 Paul Schreyer (OECD)

“Capital Measures and the National Accounts”

8:55-9:15 Hak K. Pyo (Seoul National University)

“The Estimation of Industry-Level Capital Stock for Emerging-Market and Transition Economies” [presentation file]

9:15-9:35 Harry X Wu (The Hong Kong Polytechnic University)

“Measuring Capital Input

                in Chinese Industry and Implications for 

                    China’s 

Industrial Growth

                Performance, 1949–2005”

9:35-9:55 Barbara Fraumeni (University of Southern Maine and NBER)

“Productive Highway Capital Stocks and the Contribution of Highways to Economic Growth” [presentation file] [additional]

9:55-10:15 Arnold J. Katz (BEA)

“Accounting for Obsolescence: An Evaluation of Current NIPA Practice” [presentation file] [abstract]

10:15-10:35 Eldon Ball (USDA)

“Capital Input in OECD Agriculture: A Multilateral Comparison” [presentation file]

by V.E. Ball, W.A. Lindamood, and R. Nehring (USDA)

and C. San Juan Mesonada (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain)

____________________

  

10:35-10:55 COFFEE BREAK

  

May 14 Session 2: Beyond Capital

Session Chair: Paul Sullivan (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

10:55-11:25 Bert Balk (Erasmus University Rotterdam and Statistics Netherlands)

“Measuring Productivity Change without Neoclassical Assumptions”

11:25-11:45 Laura Alfaro (Harvard University)

“Why Doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich To Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation”

L. Alfaro (Harvard University), S. Kalemli-Ozcan (University of Houston) and V. Volosovych (Florida

Atlantic University)

11:45-12:05 Julia Lane (National Science Foundation)

“Reaching for the Stars: Who Pays for Talent in Innovative Industries”

by F. Andersson (Cornell University), M. Freedman (University of Maryland),

J. Haltiwanger (University of Maryland and NBER), J. Lane (National Science Foundation)

and K. Shaw (Stanford University and NBER)

1:55-2:15 Erik Thorbecke (Cornell University)

“The Impact of Globalization on the World’s Poor”

by M. Nissanke and E. Thorbecke (Cornell University)

____________________

May 14 Luncheon Program

Capital View Ballroom (14th floor)

12:30-1:15 LUNCH

  

May 14th luncheon speakers on employment, happiness and poverty in a changing world:

Session Chair: Jack Triplett (Brookings Institution)

1:15-1:35 Richard Freeman (Harvard University and NBER)

“Informal Employment in Economic Growth and National Accounts”

1:35-1:55 Betsey Stevenson (University of Pennsylvania)

“Economic Growth and Happiness: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox”

by B. Stevenson and J. Wolfers

12:05-12:25 Gary Solon (Michigan State University and NBER)
“The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment”
by M.W. Elsby, R. Michaels and G. Solon

May 14 Afternoon Program

Parallel sessions held in the designated rooms

May 14 Session 3A: Productivity and Growth I (Location: Potomac A)

Session Chair: Dale Jorgenson (Harvard University and NBER)

2:45-3:05 Danny Leung (Bank of Canada)

“What Affects MFP in the Long Run? Evidence from Canadian Industries” [presentation file] [abstract]

by D. Leung and Y. Zheng (Bank of Canada)

3:05-3:25 Mari Kangasniemi (National Institute of Economic and Social Research, UK)

“The Economic Impact of Migration - Productivity Analysis for Spain and the UK”

by M. Kangasniemi

(National Institute of Economic and Social Research,

                    UK), 

M. Mas (University of Valencia, Spain),

                            C. Robinson (National Institute of 

Economic and Social Research, UK), and L. Serrano (University of Valencia, Spain)

3:25-3:45 Gilbert Cette (Bank of France and Université de la Méditerranée)

“A Comparison of Productivity Growth in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the

United States over the Past Century”

by G. Cette (Bank of France and Université de la Méditerranée), Y. Kocoglu (Université du Sud

Toulon-Var) and J. Mairesse (CREST (ENSAE) and UNU-MERIT (Maastricht University))

3:45-4:05 Karen Wilson (Statistics Canada)

“New Developments in the Canadian KLEMS Program”

4:05-4:20 COFFEE BREAK

4:20-4:40 Lawrence J. Lau (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

“Measuring the Chinese Economy”

4:40-5:00 Hyunbae Chun (Sogang University)

“Total Factor Productivity in Korea and International Comparisons”

by H. Chun (Sogang University), H.K. Pyo (Seoul National University) and

K.H. Rhee (Korea Productivity Center

5:00-5:20 Masahiro Kuroda (Economic and Social Research Institute, Japanese Government and Keio University)

“Measurement of TFP by Commodity Level and Structural Change in Japan”

5:20-5:50 Commentator for May 14 Session 3A

Michael Denny (University of Toronto)

____________________

May 14 Session 3B: Work and Household Wealth in a Changing Economy (Location: Potomac B)

Session Chair: Richard Freeman (Harvard University and NBER)

2:45-3:05 Christos Genakos (Cambridge University)

“Management Practices across the US, Europe and Asia”

by N. Bloom (Stanford), C. Genakos (Cambridge), R. Sadun (LSE) and J. Van Reenen (LSE)

3:05-3:25 Lucy P. Eldridge and Sabrina W. Pabilonia (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

“Are Those Who Bring Work Home Really Working Longer Hours?

Implications for BLS Productivity Measures (Updated to include 2006)” [abstract]

3:25-3:45 Susan Houseman (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)

“Do Temporary Help Jobs Improve Labor Market Outcomes for Low-Skilled Workers?

Evidence from Random Assignments”

by D. Autor (MIT) and S. Houseman (W.E. Upjohn Institute)

3:45-4:05 Stephen A. Woodbury (Michigan State University)

“Emergency Extended Benefits and Unemployment Duration:

How Sensitive Are the Estimates to Econometric Assumptions and Data Quality?”

by M.A. Allgrunn (University of South Dakota) and S.A. Woodbury (Michigan State University)

4:05-4:20 COFFEE BREAK

4:20-4:40 Edward Wolff (New York University and NBER)

“Accounting for Wealth in the Measurement of Household Income” [presentation file] [abstract]

by E.N. Wolff (New York University and NBER) and A. Zacharias (The Levy Economics

Institute)

4:40-5:00 Sudeshna Maitra (York University)

“Who Are the Indian Middle Class? A Mixture Model of Class Membership Based on Durables

Ownership”

5:00-5:20 Anastasia Semykina (Florida State University)

“Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from Rural and Urban Workers in Russia, 1995-2004” [presentation file]

by S.J. Linz (Michigan State University) and A. Semykina (Florida State University)

5:20-5:50 Session Chair’s remarks and general discussion

____________________

May 14 Session 3C: Capital Measurement and Intangible Inputs (Location: Potomac C)

Capital Measurement and Intangible Inputs

Session Chair: Paul Schreyer (OECD)

            2:45-3:05 

      Wulong Gu

          (Statistics Canada)

“Multifactor Productivity

                in Canada: An Evaluation of Alternative

                    Methods of 

Estimating Capital

                Services”

by John R. Baldwin

                and Wulong Gu (Statistics 

        Canada)

3:05-3:25 Baoline Chen (BEA) and Peter Zadrozny (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

“Further Model-Based Estimates of US Total Manufacturing Production Capital and

Technology for 1949-2005”

3:25-3:45 Itsuo Sakuma (Senshu University)

“On the Treatment of Intangible Assets in National Accounting” [presentation file]

3:45-4:05 Carol Corrado (Conference Board)

“Some New ‘Stylized Facts’ about U.S. Economic Growth”

C. Corrado (Conference Board) and C. Hulten (University of Maryland)

4:05-4:20 COFFEE BREAK

4:20-4:40 B.K. Atrostic (Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau)

“Measuring Intangibles and Innovative Activities”

4:40-5:00 Nazim Belhocine (Queens University)

“Treating Intangible Inputs as Investment Goods: the Impact on Canadian GDP”

5:00-5:20 Benjamin Bridgman (BEA)

“Do Intangible Assets Explain High US Foreign Direct Investment Returns?”

5:20-5:50 Session Chair’s remarks and general discussion

____________________

2:45-5:50 May 14 Session 3D: A Panel Session on the ICP and PPP Estimates (Location: Potomac D)

Session Organizers and Co-Chairs: Alan Heston (University of Pennsylvania and NBER) and

Fred Vogel (World Bank)

[For those unfamiliar with this program, the International Comparison Program (ICP) is a global statistical initiative that produces internationally comparable price levels, expenditure values, and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) estimates informing users such as national policy makers, economists, international organizations and academics about the relative purchasing power of citizens of countries. The PPP between two countries is the rate at which the currency of one country needs to be converted into that of a second country to ensure that a given amount of the first country’s currency will purchase the same volume of goods and services in the second country as it does in the first. The collection of price data and calculation of PPPs in over 110 countries of the world is coordinated by the ICP Global Office in the World Bank. ICP results combined with the Eurostat-OECD PPP Program bring the total number of participating countries to about 145, making it the largest international data collection exercise in the world today. Preliminary results of the most recent ICP update exercise were released at the end of 2007. The final data tables were released on the ICP website on February 26, 2008 with the final publication became available in April 2008.

See http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ICPINT/Resources/ICPreportprelim.pdf.]

____________________

2:45-3:15 Yuri Dhikanov (World Bank)

“A Summary of the Final Results from the 2005 Round for the ICP”

3:15-5:50 ICP Expert Panel Discussion

Erwin Diewert (University of British Columbia and NBER), Alan Heston (University of Pennsylvania

and NBER), Peter Hill (Consultant), Robert Lipsey (City University of New York and NBER),

Prasada Rao (University of Queensland), Bart van Ark (Conference Board), and

Kim Zieschang (International Monetary Fund).

  

May 14 Session 3E: Expert Seminar Session on Index Number Theory I (Location: The Francis Scott

Key Ballroom Salon A

Session Chair: Robert Hill (University of Graz, Austria)

2:45-3:05 Ludwig von Auer (Universität Trier)

“The Measurement of Macroeconomic Price Level Changes”

3:05-3:25 Carlo Milana (Institute of Studies and Economic Analysis)

“Chain Consistent Tight Bounds of True Index Numbers of Productivity:

An Application to EUKLEMS Data”

3:25-3:45 Nicholas Oulton (London School of Economics)

“Chain Indices of the Cost of Living and the Path-Dependence Problem: an Empirical Solution”

3:45-4:05 Marcus Scheiblecker (The Austrian Institute for Economic Research – WIFO)

“Chain-Linking in Quarterly National Accounts and the Business Cycle” [presentation file] [abstract]

4:05-4:20 COFFEE BREAK

4:20-4:40 Kam Yu (Lakehead University)

“Welfare Effect of a Price Change: The Case of Lotto 6/49” [presentation file]

by K. Yu and X. Xu (Lakehead University)

4:40-5:00 Jan de Haan (Statistics Netherlands)

“Approximating Retrospectively a Superlative Price Index

When Not All Expenditure Data Are Available” [abstract]

by B.M. Balk (Erasmus University Rotterdam and Statistics Netherlands), J. de Haan

(Statistics Netherlands) and C.B. Hansen (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe)

5:00-5:20 Bert Balk (Erasmus University Rotterdam and Statistics Netherlands)

“Searching for the Holy Grail of Index Number Theory”

5:20-5:50 Commentator for May 14 Session 3E

Marshall Reinsdorf (BEA)

____________________

May 14 Session 3F: Finance, Trade and Productivity (Location: The Francis Scott Key Ballroom

Salon B)

Session Chair: Jón Steinsson (Columbia University and NBER)

2:45-3:05 Robert Inklaar (University of Groningen in the Netherlands)

“Financial Dependence and Industry Growth in Europe: Better Banks and Higher Productivity” [presentation file]

by R. Inklaar and M. Koetter (University of Groningen)

3:05-3:25 Jianmin Tang (Industry Canada)

“Off-Shoring and Productivity: A Micro-Data Analysis” [abstract]

by J. Tang and H. de Livramento

3:25-3:45 Nancy H. Chau (Cornell University)

“Shadow Pricing Market Access: A Trade Benefit Function Approach”

by N.H. Chau (Cornell University) and R. Färe (Oregon State University)

3:45-4:05 Anne P. Villamil (University of Illinois at Champaign)

“The Impact of Owner Characteristics and Institutions on Firms”

by N. Herranz, S. Krasa, and A.P. Villamil (University of Illinois at Champaign)

4:05-4:20 COFFEE BREAK

4:20-4:40 Ramdane Djoudad (Bank of Canada)

“Household Sector Indebtedness”

by S. Dey, R. Djoudad and Y. Terajima (Bank of Canada)

4:40-5:00 Raoul Minetti (Michigan State University)

“Foreign Lenders in Emerging Economies”

by Matteo Iacoviello (Boston College) Raoul Minetti (Michigan State University)

5:00-5:20 Hagen Kim (Texas A&M University)

“Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates with Money, Habit Formation and

Asset Market Segmentation”

(Kim’s presentation will also draw on a second paper: “A Monetary Explanation of the Term

Structure of Interest Rates and Bond Risk Premia” by H. Kim and A.J. Moon)

5:20-5:50 Session Chair’s remarks and general discussion

____________________

  

  

May 14 Evening Program

Capital View Ballroom (14th floor)

ICP at 40 Celebration

Masters of Ceremonies for the evening of May 14: Alan Heston (University of Pennsylvania) and Alice Nakamura (University of Alberta)

6:00-7:00 DINNER (wine, beer, sparkling water and hors d’oeuvres on the tables when you arrive!)

  

7:30-8:00 World Congress of Economic Measurement Laureate Address

Introduction: Larry Lau (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

2008 Laureate Erwin Diewert (University of British Columbia and NBER)

“New Methodology for Linking the Regions in the ICP” [presentation file] [abstract]

  

8:00-8:15 Presentation of the “L” and induction of new members to the ICP Galaxy of the 2008 Official

Statistics Stars List by World Congress Awards Committee Member, Lawrence J. Lau,

President and Vice-Chancellor, The Chinese University of Hong Kong

  

8:15-8:30 Birthday Cake candle blowing

8:30-9:30 Cake eating, while other ICP warriors share their tales.

Remarks by Alan Heston, Betina Aten, Robert Summers, Anita Summers and others

9:30-10:30 Social Time

Thursday, May 15

May 15 Morning Program

In front of Potomac Ballroom (Main floor)

7:30-8:30 Continental breakfast (and registration for newcomers)

  

Potomac Ballroom

May 15 Session 1: Price Behavior and Measurement

Session Chair: Susan Houseman (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)

8:30-8:50 Aviv Nevo (Northwestern University)

“Consumer Behavior and the Consumer Price Index”

by R. Griffith (University College London and IFS), E. Leibtag (Economic Research Service,

USDA), A. Leicester (University College London and IFS), A. Nevo (Northwestern University

and NBER)

8:50-9:10 Emi Nakamura (Columbia University and NBER) and Jón Steinsson (Columbia University and NBER)

“Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models”

9:10-9:30 John Greenlees and Robert McClelland (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

“Price Differentials across Outlets in Consumer Price Index Data, 2002-2006” [presentation file] [abstract]

9:30-9:50 Tarek Harchaoui (Statistics Canada)

“The Behaviour of Consumer Prices in Canada, 1995-2006”

by T. Harchaoui, C. Michaud and J. Moreau (Statistics Canada)

____________________

  

9:50-10:10 COFFEE BREAK

  

May 15 Session 2: Outsourcing, Economic Growth, and Productivity Measurement

Session Chair: Michael Horrigan (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

10:10-10:30 Robert Yuskavage (BEA)

“Outsourcing and Imported Inputs in the U.S. Economy: Insights from Integrated Economic Accounts” [presentation file]

by R.E. Yuskavage, E.H. Strassner and G.W. Medeiros (BEA)

10:30-10:50 Anne Polivka (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

“Manufacturers’ Outsourcing to Employment Services”

by M. Dey (Bureau of Labor Statistics), S. Houseman (W. E. Upjohn Institute for

Employment Research), and A. Polivka (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

10:50-11-10 Christopher Kurz (Federal Reserve Board)

“Outsourcing and U.S. Economic Growth: The Role of Imported Intermediate Inputs”

by C. Kurz and P. Lengermann (Federal Reserve Board)

11:10-11:30 Bill Alterman (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

“Globalization and Price Measurement Challenges and Options”

____________________

11:30-12:35 May 15 Session 3: Panel Discussion on the Growth of Imported Intermediate Inputs:

Measurement Issues and Priorities

Session Chair: Michael Horrigan (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

  

Panel members include Keith Hall (Bureau of Labor Statistics), Steve Landefeld (BEA), Thomas Mesenbourg (U.S. Census Bureau), and Lee Price (House Appropriations Committee staff).

____________________

May 15 Luncheon Program

Capital View Ballroom (14th floor)

12:45-1:30 LUNCH

  

Picture taken in 1992 in Edmonton, Canada

by daughter Alice’s husband, Masao Nakamura.

  

1:30-2:30 Guy H. Orcutt Memorial Lecture

Session Chair: Dale Jorgenson (Harvard and NBER), a former Harvard student of Guy Orcutt

Amihai Glazer (University of California at Irvine)

“Guy H. Orcutt: A former Ph D. student’s reflections”

William D. Nordhaus (Yale and NBER), a former colleague and friend of Guy Orcutt

“"Index Numbers, Economic Theory, and Global Warming”

May 15 Afternoon Program

Parallel sessions held in the designated rooms

  

May 15 Session 4A: The System of National Accounts: Concepts and Evolution (Location: Potomac A)

Session Chair: Steve Landefeld (BEA)

2:45-3:05 Carol Carson (Consultant)

“The Way Forward”

3:05-3:25 Brent Moulton (BEA)

“The System of National Accounts for the New Economy: Prospect and Retrospect.”

3:25-3:45 Frits Bos (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

“The Value Added of the National Accounts in View of its Different Roles and Uses”

3:45-4:05 Reimund Mink (European Central Bank)

“ECB/Eurostat Work on Pensions in the Context of the SNA Update”

  

4:05-4:20 COFFEE BREAK

  

4:20-4:40 Peter Hill (Consultant)

“Concepts and Boundaries”

5:00-5:20 Anne Harrison (Editor, SNA Update)

“An Editor’s Reflections”

5:20-5:50 Karen Wilson (Statistics Canada)

“Re-focusing the Canadian SNA to meet the needs of Today and the Future”

____________________

  

May 15 Session 4B, Part 1: Outsourcing, Trade and Productivity (Location: Potomac B)

Session Chair: Mina Kim (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

2:45-3:05 Ryan Macdonald (Statistics Canada)

“Canadian and US Real Income Growth: A Reversal of Fortunes”

3:05-3:25 Catherine Morrison Paul (University of California at Davis)

“Outsourcing and Technology Transfer” [presentation file] [abstract]

3:25-3:45 Jan De Loecker (New York University and NBER)

“Product Differentiation, Multi-Product Firms and Estimating the Impact of

Trade Liberalization on Productivity”

3:45-4:05 Arti Grover (Delhi School of Economics and Princeton University)

“The Indian Business Process Outsourcing Industry: An Evaluation of Firm-Level Performance” [presentation file]

  

4:05-4:20 COFFEE BREAK

  

May 15 Session 4B, Part 2: Foreign Direct Investment–Patterns and Implications for U.S. Workers

(Location: Potomac B)

Session Chair: Subal Kumbhakar (SUNY Binghamton)

4:20-4:40 Laura Alfaro (Harvard University and NBER)

“Intra-Industry Foreign Direct Investment”

by Laura Alfaro (Harvard University and NBER) and Andrew Charlton

(London School of Economics)

4:40-5:00 Bradford Jensen (Georgetown University and Peterson Institute for International Economics)

“Vertical Integration in Services at U.S. Multinational Firms”

by J.B. Jensen (Georgetown University and Peterson Institute for International Economics) and

C. Mann (Brandeis University and Peterson Institute for International Economics)

5:00-5:20 Elizabeth Weber Handwerker and Mina Kim (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

“A Discussion of the Challenges of Matching FDI and Trade in Services Data from BEA with BLS Data on Employment Patterns”

5:20-5:40 Sharon Brown (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

“Identifying Business Functions and Business Process Involved in Mass Layoffs in the United States” [presentation file]

5:40-5:50 Session Chair’s closing remarks for the May 15 Session 4B, Parts 1 and 2

____________________

  

  

May 15 Session 4C: Price Behavior (Location: Potomac C)

Session Chair: John Greenlees (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

2:45-3:05 Jan van Dalen (Erasmus University, Rotterdam)

“Price Indices for Marine Sport Charter Contracts” [presentation file] [abstract]

by A. Veenstra and J. van Dalen

3:05-3:25 Harry Paarsch (University of Iowa)

“Rent-Extracting Prices for Timber in British Columbia”

3:25-3:45 Leonard Nakamura (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

“Wal-Mart Prices: Explanation and Implications”

by A.O. Nakamura (University of Alberta), L. Nakamura (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

and M. Prud’Homme (Public Works Canada)

3:45-4:05 Ana María Herrera (Michigan State University)

“Why Are Gasoline Prices Sticky: A Test of Alternative Theories of Price Adjustment”

by Christopher Douglas and Ana María Herrera (Michigan State University)

  

4:05-4:20 COFFEE BREAK

  

4:20-4:40 Asli Leblebicioglu (North Carolina State University)

“A Regime Switching Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-through”

4:40-5:00 Heidrun Gudmundsdottir (Statistics Iceland)

“Electronic Data Collection Methods: the Use of Transaction Data for PPI” [presentation file] [abstract]

by H. Guðmundsdóttir., R. Guðnason and G.R. Jónsdóttir (Statistics Iceland)

5:00-5:20 Emi Nakamura (Columbia University and NBER)

“Pass-Through in Retail and Wholesale”

5:20-5:50 Commentator for May 15 Session 4C

John Greenlees (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

____________________

  

  

May 15 Session 4D: PPPs, Terms of Trade, output and Productivity Measurement

(Location: Potomac D)

Session Chair: Robert Hill (University of Graz, Austria)

2:45-3:10 W. Erwin Diewert (University of British Columbia and NBER)

“Changes in the Terms of Trade and Canada’s Productivity Performance” [abstract]

3:10-3:35 Ulrich Kohli (Swiss National Bank)

“Globalization, Trade in Middle Products, and Relative Prices”

3:35-4:00 Marcel Timmer (University of Groningen in the Netherlands)

“Aggregation of Industry-Level Productivity in an Open Economy”

by M. Timmer and R. Inklaar (University of Groningen)

  

4:00-4:15 COFFEE BREAK

  

4:15-4:40 Marshall Reinsdorf (BEA)

“Measuring Effects on Changing Terms of Trade on Real Gross National Income” [presentation file] [abstract]

4:40-5:05 Keir Armstrong (Carleton University)

“Empirically Estimated ‘True’ PPP Indexes”

5:05-5:30- Alicia Rambaldi (University of Queensland, Australia)

“Construction of World Tables of Purchasing Power Parities and Real Incomes

Based on Multiple Benchmarks and Auxiliary Information: A State-Space Approach” [presentation file]

by D.S. Prasada Rao, A. Rambaldi and H. Doran (University of Queensland, Australia)

5:30-5:50 Commentator for May 15 Session 4D, and general discussion

Dave Mead (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

____________________

  

May 15 Session 4E: Growth, Jobs and Earnings (Location: The Francis Scott Key Ballroom Salon A)

Session Chair: Richard Freeman (Harvard University and NBER)

2:45-3:05 Soji Adelaja (Michigan State University)

“How States Grow: The Old and the New Economy”

by S. Adelaja, Y.G. Hailu, M. Wyckoff and E. Bailey (Michigan State University)

3:05-3:25 Seik Kim (University of Washington)

“Economic Assimilation of Foreign-Born Workers in the United States: An Overlapping

Rotating Panel Analysis” [presentation file]

3:25-3:45 Joyce Chen (Ohio State University)

Identifying Non-Cooperative Behavior among Spouses: Child Outcomes in

Migrant-Sending Households

3:45-4:05 Hâle Utar (University of Colorado at Boulder)

“Import Competition and Employment Dynamics” [abstract]

  

4:05-4:20 COFFEE BREAK

  

4:20-4:40 Dale Belman (Michigan State University)

“Earnings and Hours of Work in a Weakly Regulated Labor Market: The Case of Truck Drivers”

by D. Belman (Michigan State University), K.A. Monaco (California State University at Long Beach)

and P.J. Wolfson (Dartmouth College)

4:40-5:00 John Haltiwanger (University of Maryland)

“Exploring Differences in Employment between Household and Establishment Data”

by K.G. Abraham (University of Maryland), J. Haltiwanger (University of Maryland),

K. Sandusky (U.S. Census Bureau) and J. Spletzer (U.S. Census Bureau)

5:00-5:20 Limor Golan (Carnegie Mellon University)

“Promotion, Turnover and Compensation in the Market for Executives”

by G.-L. Gayle, L. Golan, and R. Miller (Carnegie Mellon University)

5:20-5:50 Commentator for May 15 Session 4E, and general discussion

Matthew Dey (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

____________________

  

May 15 Session 4F, Part 1: Index Number Theory II (Location: Francis Scott Key Ballroom Salon B)

Session Chair: Tarek Harchaoui (Statistics Canada)

2:45-3:05 Martin Eiglsperger (European Central Bank)

“Seasonal Adjustment of Chain-linked Volume Measures in Quarterly National Accounts:

Findings of a European Task Force”

3:05-3:25 Adam Copeland (BEA)

“Seasonality and Prepackaged Software Price Indexes” [presentation file] [abstract]

by A. Copeland and A. Miller (BEA)

3:25-3:45 Jens Mehrhoff (Bundesbank)

“Sources of Revisions of Seasonally Adjusted Real Time Data” [presentation file]

3:45-4:05 Irwin Gerduk (Consulting, LLC)

“The Producer Price Index Quality Assessment Framework: An Empirical Tool for Assessing the

Fitness for Use of a GDP Price Deflator” [presentation file] [abstract]

4:05-4:25 Paul Armknecht (Consultant)

“Dealing with Seasonal Products in Price Indexes” [presentation file] [ab

by W.E. Diewert, P.A. Armknecht and A.O. Nakamura

  

4:25-4:40 COFFEE BREAK

  

May 15 Session 4F, Part 2: Index Number Practice in Developing Countries (Location: Francis Scott

Key Ballroom Salon B)

Session Chair: Marshall Reinsdorf (BEA)

4:40-5:00 David Fenwick (U.K. Office of National Statistics)

“A Globally-Harmonised Consumer Price Index: A Review of the Need for such an Index and the

Extent to Which It Is and Can Be Met and the Implications for the ILO Resolution on Consumer

Price Indices” [presentation file]

5:00-5:20 David Fenwick (U.K. Office for National Statistics)

“The challenges facing compilers of CPIs in developing countries: and the need for a supplementary

handbook to the International Manual on CPIs and implications for the ILO resolution on consumer

price indices” [presentation file]

5:20-5:50 Panel discussion of the Fenwick presentations by Ludwig von Auer (Universität Trier),

Bert Balk (Erasmus University Rotterdam and Statistics Netherlands), Martin Eiglsperger (European

Central Bank), and Marc Prud’Homme (Public Works Canada).

____________________

May 15 Evening Program

Capital View Ballroom (14th floor)

Masters of Ceremonies for the evening of May 15: Mun Ho (Resources for the Future) and Alice Nakamura (University of Alberta)

6:00-6:45 DINNER

  

6:45-7:00 Presentation of the “E” and induction of new members to the Author’s Galaxy of the 2008

Official Statistics Stars by World Congress Awards Committee Member, D.S. Prasada Rao

(University of Queensland, Australia).

  

From “Potomac River Mist” by Carl Sandburg

  

The Washington monument pointed to a new moon for us

and a gang from over the river sang ragtime to a ukelele.

The river mist marched up and down the Potomac, we hunted

the fog-swept Lincoln Memorial, white as a blond woman’s arm.

We circled the city of Washington and came back home four o’clock in the morning,

passing a sign: House Where Abraham Lincoln Died, Admission Cents.

  

The path of a night fog swept up the river to the Lincoln Memorial

when I saw it again and alone at a winter’s end, the marble in the mist

white as a blond woman’s arm.

  

7:10-7:50 The Potomac Lectures

Session Chair: Susan Houseman (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)

Leonard Nakamura (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

“Intangibles and National Income Measurement”

Robert E. Lipsey (City University of New York and NBER)

“Measuring the Location of Production in a World of Intangible Productive Assets,

FDI, and Intrafirm Trade”

  

8:00-9:40 A Panel on the New XMPI Manual

(The manual is available at http://www-dev-ext.imf.org/external/np/sta/tegeipi/)

Session Organizer and Chair: Mick Silver (IMF)

Other panel members:

Bill Alterman (Bureau of Labor Statistics), Paul Armknecht (Consultant),

Erwin Diewert (University of British Columbia and NBER), Kim Zieschang (IMF)

  

9:40-10:30 Social Time

  

Friday, May 16

In front of Potomac Ballroom (Main floor)

7:30-8:30 Continental breakfast (and registration for newcomers)

  

Potomac Ballroom

  

May 16 Session 1: New Measurement Approaches and Challenges

Session Chair: Jón Steinsson (Columbia University and NBER)

8:30-8:50 Ariel Pakes (Harvard University and NBER)

“An Experimental Component Index for the CPI”

by T. Erickson (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and A. Pakes (Harvard University and NBER)

8:50-9:10 David Fenwick (U.K. Office of National Statistics)

“Using the SNA to Improve Price Measures” [presentation file]

  

9:10-10:10 May 16 Session 2: Panel Discussion on Services Off-shoring: Its Growth and Problems in Measuring It

Session Chair: Janet Norwood (NAPA)

  

Panel members include Loren Yager (GAO), Ken Ryder, NAPA, Obie Whichard (BEA), Loren

Yager (GAO), and Bradford Jensen (Georgetown University and Peterson Institute for International

Economics)

____________________

  

10:10-10:30 COFFEE BREAK

  

May 16 Session 3: Measures of Employment, Price and Productivity Changes

Session Chair: Richard Freeman (Harvard University and NBER)

10:30-10:50 Susan Houseman (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)

“Outsourcing, Offshoring, and Productivity: Measurement Issues

11:10-11:30 Ivan T. Kandilov (North Carolina State University)

“How Import Competition Affects Displaced Workers in the U.S.”

11:30-11:50 Aviv Nevo (Northwestern University and NBER)

“How Accurate is Self-Reported Consumer Purchase Behavior?”

by L. Einav (Stanford University and NBER), E. Leibtag (USDA), and A. Nevo

(Northwestern University and NBER)

11:50-12:10 Erik Brynjolfsson (MIT)

“Scale without Mass: Business Process Replication and Industry Dynamics”

____________________

May 16 Luncheon Program

Capital View Ballroom (14th floor)

  

12:15-1:00 LUNCH

  

1:00-2:20 Panel II on the Role of Official Statistics in a Modern Society

Session Chair: Paul Schreyer (OECD)

Alice Rivlin (Congressional Budget Office)

“Reflections on the Creation and Development of the Congressional Budget Office”

Amihai Glazer (University of California at Irvine)

“Rent Seeking by Excessive Data Collection”

Robert G. Murphy (Boston College)

“Finding Ways to Bring More Official Statistics into Economics Textbooks for Universities”

Enrico Giovannini (OECD)

“Is Globalisation a Threat to Official Statistics?”

  

May 16 Afternoon Program

Parallel sessions held in the designated rooms

  

May 16 Session 4A: R&D and Capital (Location: Potomac A)

Session Chair: Karen Wilson (Statistics Canada)

2:45-3:05 Dale Mortensen (Northwestern University and NBER)

“An Empirical Model of Growth through Product Innovation”

by R. Lentz (University of Wisconsin-Madison and Boston University) and

D.T. Mortensen (Northwestern University and NBER)

3:05-3:25 Dennis Fixler (BEA)

“Measuring the Price of R&D Output”

3:25-3:45 Mark de Haan (Statistics Netherlands)

“Measurement Issues in R&D Capitalization: Results from the Netherlands” [presentation file]

3:45-4:05 Michelle Alexopoulos (University of Toronto)

“Volumes of Evidence: Examining Technical Change Last Century Through a New Lens” [abstract]

by M. Alexopoulos and J. Cohen (University of Toronto)

  

4:05-4:20 COFFEE BREAK

  

4:20-4:40 Koji Nomura (Keio University)

“Japan’s New Survey of Asset Discards from Corporate Accounts”

4:40-5:00 Martin K. Zhu (USDA)

“Impact of External Shocks on Nation's Policy Responses and Economic Growth --

the World Economic Synchronization” [presentation file] [abstract]

5:00-5:20 Linda Cohen (University of California at Irvine)

“R&D Expenditures as an Indicator of a Country’s Investment in Innovation”

5:20-5:50 Session Chair’s remarks and general discussion

____________________

May 16 Session 1B, Part 1: Productivity and Growth II (Location: Potomac B)

Session Chair: Dale Jorgenson (Harvard University and NBER)

2:45-3:15 Ajit Singh (University of Cambridge)

“Does Integration of India and China with the World Economy Harm the US Workers?”

3:15-3:35 Subal Kumbhakar (SUNY Binghamton)

“Impact of Reforms on Plant-Level Productivity and Technical Efficiency:

Evidence from the Indian Manufacturing Sector”

by S.K. Bhaumik and S.C. Kumbhakar (SUNY Binghamton)

3:35-3:55 Thomas Strobel (University of Munich)

“ICT, Skills and German Industry Productivity: The Interdependency of High-Skilled

Labor and ICT Investments”

  

3:55-4:10 COFFEE BREAK

  

May 16 Session 1B, Part 2: Productivity and Growth II (Location: Potomac B)

Session Chair: Dale Jorgenson (Harvard University and NBER)

4:10-4:30 Amit Gandhi (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

“Estimating Production Functions with Heterogeneous Firms”

by A. Gandhi, S. Navarro and D. Rivers (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

4:30-4:50 Daniel Boothby (Industry Canada)

“Business R&D Intensity in Canada and the United States: Does Firm Size Matter?”

by T. Songsakul, B. Lau and D. Boothby (Industry Canada)

4:50-5:05 Sean Collins (University of Alberta)

“Base of Pyramid Business Strategies for Developing Countries”

5:05-5:20 Takanobu Nakajima (Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office,

Japanese Government and Keio University)

“The Estimation of Returns to Scale in Japanese Industries”

by W.E. Diewert, T. Nakajima, A. Nakamura and M. Nakamura

5:20-5:35 Alice Nakamura (University of Alberta)

“Returns to Scale and Multifactor Productivity Growth in Canada: a KLEMS Application”

by A. Nakamura (University of Alberta) and J. Tang (Industry Canada)

5:35-5:50 Commentator for May 16 Session 1B-Parts 1 and 2

Michael J. Harper (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

____________________

  

May 16 Session 4C: Index Number Theory III (Location: Potomac C)

Session Chair: Ulrich Kohli (Swiss National Bank)

2:45-3:05 Ki-Hong Choi (National Pension Research Institute, Korea) and Hak K. Pyo (Seoul National University)

“Reinsdorf-Balk Transformation and Additive Decomposition of Indexes”

3:05-3:25 Jianmin Tang (Industry Canada)

“Unbalanced Industry Demand and Supply Shifts: Implications for Economic Growth in Canada and the

United States” [abstract]

by A. Dufour, J. Tang and W. Wang

3:25-3:45 Gerry O’Donnell (Statistics Canada)

“Assessing the Reliability of the 2005 CPI Basket Update in Canada Using the

Bortkiewicz Decomposition”

by A. Chaffe, M. Lequain and G. O. O-Donnell (Statistics Canada)

3:45-4:05 D.S. Prasada Rao (University of Queensland, Australia)

“Systems of Index Numbers for International Price Comparisons Based on the Stochastic Approach”

by G. Hajarghasht and D.S. Prasada Rao (University of Queensland, Australia)

  

4:05-4:20 COFFEE BREAK

  

4:20-4:40 Mick Silver (IMF)

“An Index Number Formula Problem: The Aggregation of Broadly Comparable Items”

4:40-5:00 Ludwig von Auer (Universität Trier)

“Questioning Some General Wisdom in Axiomatic Index Theory”

5:00-5:20 Ludwig von Auer (Universität Trier)

“Axiomatic Analysis of Unilateral Price Indices”

5:20-5:50 Commentator for May 16 Session 4F, and general discussion

Marshall Reinsdorf (BEA)

____________________

  

May 16 Session 4D: Owner Occupied Housing and Durables (Location: Potomac D)

Session Chair: Martin Eiglsperger (European Central Bank)

2:45-3:05 Ariel Coremberg (ECLAC Buenos Aires CONICET/IDES)

“Depreciation of Durable Goods in an Unstable Economy: The Case of Argentina” [abstract] [presentation file]

3:05-3:25 Carmen Reinhart (University of Maryland and NBER)

“Is the 2007 U.S. Subprime Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison”

by C. Reinhart (University of Maryland and NBER) and K.S. Rogoff

3:25-3:45 Rósmundur Guðnason (Statistics Iceland)

“House Price Indexes, Approaches and Methods”

by Rósmundur Guðnason and Guðrún R. Jónsdóttir (Statistics Iceland)

  

3:45-4:00 COFFEE BREAK

  

4:00-4:20 Jan de Haan (Statistics Netherlands)

“A House Price Index Based on the SPAR Method” [presentation file] [abstract]

P. De Vries, J. De Haan, G. Mariën and E. van der Wal (Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands)

4:20-4:40 Robert J. Hill (University of Graz, Austria)

“Comparing House Prices Using Hedonic Methods: The Problem of Substitution Bias” [presentation file]

4:40-5:00 Thesia Garner and Randal Verbrugge (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

“Reconciling Users Costs and Rental Equivalence: Evidence from the US Consumer Expenditure Survey”

5:00-5:20 W. Erwin Diewert (University of British Columbia and NBER)

“Accounting for Housing in a CPI” [presentation file] [abstract] [background paper]

by W.E. Diewert (University of British Columbia and NBER) and A.O. Nakamura (University

of Alberta)

5:20-5:50 Commentator for May 16 Session 4D, and general discussion

Paul Schreyer (OECD)

____________________

  

May 16 Evening Program

Capital View Ballroom (14th floor)

  

  

Masters of Ceremonies for the evening of May 16: Steve Landefeld (BEA) and Alice Nakamura (University of Alberta)

  

6:00-7:00 DINNER

  

7:00-7:15 Presentation of the “M” by “World Congress Awards Committee Member Hak Pyo (Seoul National

University).

  

7:15-7:45 Recognition of the United Nations and other international organizations that have made possible the SNA revision, and of Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts (ISWGNA) and of ISWGNA's Advisory Expert Group (AEG): Kim Zieschang (IMF)

  

8:00-9:30 S&A Tales

Dale Jorgenson (Harvard University and NBER), Enrico Giovannini (OECD), Carol Carson

(Consultant), Anne Harrison (Editor, SNA Update), Frits Bos (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic

Policy Analysis), Peter Hill (Consultant), W. Erwin Diewert (University of British Columbia and

NBER), and Brent Moulton

(BEA).

  

9:30-10:30 Social Time

Saturday, May 17

In front of Potomac Ballroom (Main floor)

  

8:00-9:00 Continental breakfast (and registration for newcomers)

  

Parallel sessions held in the designated rooms

  

May 17 Session 1A, Part 1: Productivity Measurement (Location: Potomac A)

Session Chair: Dale Jorgenson (Harvard University and NBER)

9:00-9:20 Andrew Sharpe (Centre for the Study of Living Standards-www.csls.ca)

“A Detailed Analysis of Productivity Performance in the Canadian Mining and Oil

and Gas Extraction Industry”

9:20-9:40 Ariel Coremberg (ECLAC Buenos Aires CONICET/IDES)

“Measurement Problems of TFP Performance in an Unstable Economy:

Argentina 1990-2004: A Case of the Tyranny of Methodology” [abstract] [presentation file]

9:40-10:00 Eunice Lau (The Asian Productivity Organization)

“The APO Initiative”

  

10:00-10:20 COFFEE BREAK

  

May 17 Session 1A, Part 2: Measurement of Shocks and Price Movements (Location: Potomac A)

Session Chair: Dale Jorgenson (Harvard University and NBER)

10:20-10:40 Jacques.Kibambe (University of Pretoria)

“Some Policy Experiments Using a Marshallian Econometric Model”

10:40-11:00 Loretta Fung (University of Alberta)

“The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Movements on Services”

by J. Baggs (University of Victoria), E. Beaulieu (University of Calgary) and L. Fung (University

of Alberta)

11:00-11:20 Peter Hill (Consultant)

“The Lowe Index”

11:20-11:40 Bert Balk (Erasmus University Rotterdam and Statistics Netherlands)

“The Lowe Consumer Price Index and Its Substitution Bias”

11:40-11:50 Commentator for May 17 Session 1A, Parts 1 and 2

Marshall Reinsdorf (BEA)

____________________

  

May 17 Session 1B: Measurement in an e-World (Location: Potomac B)

Session Chair: Richard Freeman (Harvard University and NBER)

9:00-9:20 Dale Mortensen (Northwestern University and NBER)

“More on Unemployment and Vacancy Fluctuations”

by D.T. Mortensen (Northwestern University and NBER) and É. Nagypál (Northwestern

University)

9:20-9:40 Michelle Alexopoulos (University of Toronto)

“The Media Is the Measure: Documenting the Relationship between Technical

Change and Employment, 1909-49” [abstract]

by M. Alexopoulos and J. Cohen (University of Toronto)

9:40-10:00 John W. Galbraith (McGill University)

“Electronic Transactions as High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity”

  

10:00-10:20 COFFEE BREAK

  

10:20-10:40 Jason Faberman (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

“Adjusted Estimates of Worker Flows and Job Openings in JOLTS”

by S.J. Davis (University of Chicago), R.J. Faberman (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia),

J.C. Haltiwanger (University of Maryland and NBER), and I. Rucker (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

10:40-11:00 Vera Brenčič (University of Alberta)

“Online Job Boards as an Employer Recruitment Tool”

by V. Brenčič (University of Alberta) and J.B. Norris (Purdue University)

11:00-11:20 Alice O. Nakamura (University of Alberta)

“Importance and Measurement of Size for e-Sites”

by A.O. Nakamura (University of Alberta), R.B. Freeman (Harvard University),

and A. Pyman (University of Kent)

11:20-11:40 Betsey Stevenson (University of Pennsylvania)

“The Impact of the Internet on Worker Flows”

11:40-11:50 Session Chair’s closing remarks

____________________

  

May 17 Session 1D: Expert Session on Output and Price Measurement for the Banking Industry

(Location: Potomac D)

Session Chair: John Greenlees (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

9:00-9:20 David Humphrey (Florida State University)

“Using Frontier Efficiency Analysis to Indicate Banking Productivity” [presentation file] [abstract]

9:20-9:40 Sangita Dubey (Statistics Canada)

“Bank Service Price Measurement and Output Deflation in Canada”

by S. Dubey and M. Ruddock (Statistics Canada)

9:40-10:00 Kusum W. Ketkar (Vanderbilt University)

“Performance and Profitability of Banks in India in the Post Liberalization Period”

10:00-10:20 Christina Wang (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) and Susanto Basu (Boston College and NBER)

“Technological Progress, ‘Money’ in the Utility Function, and the ‘User Cost of Money’”

10:40-11:40 Banking panel discussion:

Itsuo Sakuma (Senshu University, Japan) [presentation file]

Dennis Fixler (BEA)

Erwin Diewert (University of British Columbia and NBER)

11:40-11:50 Session Chair’s closing remarks

____________________

May 17 Luncheon Program

Capital View Ballroom (14th floor)

  

12:00-12:40 LUNCH

  

May 17th luncheon speakers on some big issues affecting index making:

Session Chair: Enrico Giovannini (OECD)

12:40-1:00 Gergely Ujhelyi (University of Houston)

“Do Corruption Indices Measure Corruption?”

by D. Domchev (Harvard University) and G. Ujhelyi (University of Houston)

1:00-1:20 Patrick Canning (USDA)

Fuel for Food: Global Energy Requirements to Accommodate U.S. Food Demand

P. Canning (USDA/ERS) and K.R. Polenske (MIT/DUSP)

1:20-1:40 Barry Ickes (Pennsylvania State University and The New Economic School, Moscow)

“The Political Economy of Resource Dependence in Russia: Addiction and Withdrawal”

by C. Gaddy (Brookings Institution) and B. Ickes (Pennsylvania State University and

The New Economic School, Moscow)

1:40-2:00 Bill Alterman and Jeanette Siegel (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

“Pricing International Services -- Trials and Tribulations!

  

May 17 Afternoon Program

Potomac Ballroom (A&B&C combined)

  

May 17 Session 2: Services and Other Hard to Treat Measurement Issues

Session Chair: Thesia Garner (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

2:20-2:40 Peter Hill (Consultant)

“Interest in National Accounts”

2:40-3:00 W. Erwin Diewert (University of British Columbia and NBER)

“The Measurement of Nonmarket Sector Outputs and Inputs Using Cost Weights” [abstract]

3:00-3:20 Leighton Vaughan Williams (Nottingham Trent University)

“Broadcasting Productivity Growth in the UK: Implications for the BBC” [presentation file]

by D. Paton and L.V. Williams (Nottingham Trent University)

  

3:20-3:40 COFFEE BREAK

  

3:40-4:00 Kam Yu (Lakehead University)

“Comparisons of Hospital Output in Canada: National and International Perspectives” [presentation file]

by K. Yu (Lakehead University) and R. Ariste (Canadian Institute for Health Information)

4:00-4:20 Ana Aizcorbe (BEA)

“Changes in Treatment Intensity, Treatment Substitution and Price Indexes for Health Care Services”

by A. Aizcorbe (BEA) and N. Nestoriak (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

4:20-4:40 John Sabelhaus (University of Maryland)

“Will the Slowdown in US Health Cost Growth Continue? A Factor Market Perspective”

4:20-5:00 Concluding Remarks

Richard Freeman (Harvard University and NBER)

____________________

  

May 17 Evening Program

Capital View Ballroom (14th floor)

Gala Farewell

  

Masters of Ceremonies for the evening of May 16: Richard Freeman (Harvard University and NBER) and

Alice Nakamura (University of Alberta)

  

6:00-7:00 Reception

7:00-8:00 DINNER

8:00-8:15 Presentation of the S by World Congress Awards Committee Member, Alice Nakamura

(University of Alberta)

8:15-10:30 Social time, with light dessert; after dinner drinks, decaf latte and coffee and tea, cocoa

  

The Organizing Committee

Bill Alterman (BLS), Susanto Basu (Boston College and NBER), Richard Freeman (Harvard University and NBER), John Greenlees (BLS), David Fenwick (UK Office of National Statistics, ONS), Dennis Fixler (BEA), Tarek Harchaoui (Statistics Canada), Mike Harper (BLS), Robert Hill (University of Graz), Susan Houseman (Upjohn Institute), Steve Landefeld (BEA), Ephraim Leibtag (USDA), Alice Nakamura (University of Alberta), Emi Nakamura (Columbia, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and NBER), Leonard Nakamura (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia), Koji Nomura (Keio University), Marc Prud’homme (Statistics Canada), Hak Pyo (Seoul University), Marshall Reinsdorf (BEA), Ken Ryder (NAPA), Someshwar Rao (Industry Canada), Paul Schreyer (OECD), Mick Silver (IMF), Jón Steinsson (Columbia, New York Federal Reserve Board and NBER), Jianmin Tang (Industry Canada), Ludwig von Auer (University of Trier), Christina Wang (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston), and Karen Wilson (Statistics Canada).

  

  

The Sponsoring Organizations

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

US Department of Agriculture (USDA)

Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

University of Alberta School of Business

Industry Canada

Statistics Canada

W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)

School of Economics and Centre for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis, University of Queensland